Warriors vs Celtics NBA Finals Game 1 Picks + Predictions

Get your popcorn ready

We’ve made it to the 2022 NBA Finals and what a ride it’s been. Two deserving teams in the Golden State Warriors + Boston Celtics. Star power, legacies, defense. I’m so excited. In today’s free newsletter, I will share my sports betting picks for Game 1 of the series. Make sure you’re subscribed to my Frenzy Bets newsletter for continuing predictions coverage of the NBA Finals, I will publish series props bets + Finals MVP bets later on. For now, let’s begin with game 1.

Slow and steady wins the race

If you’ve been following me on Twitter @Myguyknowsaguy, then you already know that I’ve capitalized on nearly every Celtics win during this postseason. This team has been good to me. I’m of the mindset that this season’s Celtics title run is not a fluke. This is the very beginning of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown’s title window. When you look at this duo’s year-over-year statistical improvement, it’s hard to imagine anything less than 2-3 title runs (runs, now outright championships) over the next 5-6 NBA seasons. However, this Celtics team is seemingly outmatched vs the Warriors in most “big picture” stats. Players currently on the warriors’ roster have 123 career finals appearances. Players on the Celtics roster have none. Golden State is clearly a dynasty, a team that has reached the finals in each year they’ve been healthy. It feels like the Warriors should be slightly larger favourites here, given Boston’s relative inexperience. So, why do oddsmakers have this series so close to a pick em’? They’ve been watching basketball since January 1st. That’s why.

Hot start?

It’s one thing to have a great defense in the NBA Playoffs, but having a defense that travels and adapts to any setting is what has impressed me the most about the 2022 Boston Celtics. During this postseason, the Celtics + Warriors rank 1st and 2nd in 4th quarter defensive rating. Zoom into 1st half metrics and you’ll find that Boston still ranks 1st in defense, but the Warriors fall to 6th amongst teams that qualified for the playoffs. GSW are prone to sleepy starts to games, especially with rest. I think the longer layover for the Warriors will help them in the long-run, but will actually be detrimental in game 1. During these playoffs, the Boston Celtics are 11-7 ATS (61%) in the first half of their games. On the road they’re 7-2 (77%). What makes their 1H road record so impressive is the route they’ve taken to the finals. Defeating the #1 seed Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets in succession with a young core is incredibly impressive. This series will partially be decided by paint efficiency, who will impose themselves inside? Kevon Looney had a very impressive series vs the Dallas Mavericks, but I don’t think he’ll be nearly as effective vs the Celtics. Al Horford and Robert Williams will be X-Factors. I anticipate Golden State to shoot a bit flat to begin game 1, this is not an endorsement of a full game winner.

Picks: Boston Celtics 1H +1.5 (1st half) 0.75 units

Best of luck, I’m publishing some videos on YouTube this week, subscribe there as well. See you next time! I truly appreciate your time!