Picks: Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 NBA Playoffs 2022
Picks: Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 NBA Playoffs 2022
It's time to adjust
Dear Readers,
My NBA bet today will be larger than usual. As someone who spoke very highly of the 2021-22 Boston Celtics before the season began, I was a bit surprised after watching their disappointing (for Boston fans + bettors) Game 1 performance vs the Milwaukee Bucks. I didn’t have any pregame bets, but I predicted the Celtics to win Game 1. I was wrong on many fronts. In the NBA, I believe that most important defensive metrics carry over into the postseason if your team is relatively healthy. I wouldn’t say that Celtics Head Coach Ime Udoka was thoroughly outsmarted by Bucks Head Coach Mike Budenholzer because the Celtics’ plan to frustrate Giannis Antetokounmpo worked well for much of the game. Milwaukee’s role players came to play. Many have now questioned Boston’s chances in this series, but I still believe the Celtics have a good chance to win it. Let’s continue.
Celtics Defense, Giannis Distribution
Nearly every time Boston collapsed on Giannis in Game 1, he dished out one of his season-high 12 assists and found mulitple Bucks shooters who then proceeded to execute on catch and shoot threes. They fell for the Giannis trap. Khris Middleton being missing didn’t matter. Grayson Allen, Jrue Holiday and Pat Connaughton had strong shooting nights from beyond the arc thanks to the extra attention Giannis received. The key component here is the lack of intensity closing out on the perimeter by a Celtics team that in my opinion has the best perimeter defense of any team in the playoffs (with the Suns and Mavericks not being far behind). Head Coach Ime Udoka referred to this worrying development in his post-game interview, saying the team needed to try harder defending the three point line. This Bucks team is built to punish you for overreacting to Giannis, you have to run them off of the three point line. When engaged, the Celtics excel at this. Al Horford had a great performance defending Giannis, but it’s going to be hard to slow him down to just 9/25 shooting again. I give Giannis a lot of credit for how sharp he looked distributing, he consistently made winning plays that didn’t require him getting to the free throw line. I expect the Celtics to do a better job containing the perimeter and closing out on the Bucks role players + shooters.
Celtics Offense
Boston held Milwaukee to just 101 points, only the third time the Bucks have scored less than 105 points in their last 14 games. The Celtics’ offensive mistakes were an even bigger problem than their defense in Game 1. They never found any rhythm, Jalen Brown was out or sorts all night + The Bucks defense stifled Jayson Tatum. As we’ve seen throughout the playoffs, there is sometimes an added sense of pressure for NBA teams that host Game 1 of a playoff series. Teams often resort to heavy isolation tactics and forget their offensive identity. It took Boston getting crushed for them to remember what’s worked for them all season, penetrating the paint with their athletic wings (Tatum + Brown) and trusting their teammates (all above average three point shooters) to hit relatively easier shots. The Celtics shot just 2/23 on contested two point shots in Game 1, the worst of any team in the NBA postseason since 2017. They forced the majority of their shots. I give the Bucks credit for bringing a high level of physicality to the game, but I know the Celtics can raise their game on Tuesday and meet this challenge. When this offense plays freely, they win by margin. The Bucks also scored 27 points off 18 Celtics turnovers, unacceptable. I believe Marcus Smart will play and the betting line of -4.5 has remained steady since it opened. I don’t think Boston’s offense will make nearly as many mistakes in their half court sets in Game 2. It’s time to focus. It’s time for them to remember who they are.
Bets
I’m making a series of bets here (view below). The Boston Celtics will respond in Game 2 vs the Bucks and even the series 1-1. This is my prediction. Cleaner offense (they won’t score 89 at home again), fewer turnovers + better effort defending the perimeter. This is the game plan. If you agree, bet responsibly. Best of luck and thanks for reading my Frenzy Bets newsletter! Subscribe to receive these reports to your e-mail. Check out the YouTube video below featuring more of my thoughts for Bucks vs Celtics, I’m on Twitter at @Myguyknowsaguy
Picks: Boston Celtics -4.5 1 unit bet AND I’m betting 2.5 units on Celtics moneyline -185. If they win, but fail to cover, we still profit slightly.
Bonus
I bet 1.5 units on Boston Celtics to win the series at +120 odds after their game 1 loss.