NBA Picks + Props for Wednesday 3/30/22
NBA Picks + Props for Wednesday 3/30/22
10 selections, let's profit from the intrigue
I’m preparing myself for the level of volatility I’m projecting for tonight’s loaded NBA slate. I’m writing to you after a lengthy NBA analysis session. The postseason is near, but we still have more questions than answers. We are witnessing one of the closes playoff races (eastern conference) in NBA history. I will share my NBA picks and props for tonight in this newsletter. If you’re interested in joining my Telegram betting group for live betting advice, join my Patreon. You will receive the paid version of this newsletter as a free gift by joining. Let’s proceed!
Deandre Ayton
Deandre Ayton stepped up in the absence of Chris Paul. Many analysts naturally assumed at least half of his production could be attributed to the dynamic chemistry they formed together. Never underestimate the power of financial incentives in the NBA. The Phoenix Suns decided not to offer Ayton a max contract before the season began and he’s proving to be worthy of it. In the final 14 games without CP3, Ayton averaged 18.4 points per game on 70% TS, dramatically improving his level of physicality on the defensive end. If his highly motivated play continues, tonight’s matchup vs the Golden State Warriors presents an opportunity.
Deandre Ayton’s motor kicks into high gear with Chris Paul on the floor, this has been evident for a year and a half. The half-court sets run by the Suns feature this potent pick + roll combo constantly and the results look effortless. Phoenix visits the Warriors tonight, with GSW receiving a shocking amount of respect from the oddsmakers (remember, Steph Curry isn’t expected to return until the playoffs). The GSW defense has allowed opposing bigs to wreak havoc and get to the free throw line at a rapid rate in the month of March. Just over their last 6 games they’ve been on the wrong end of big performances by Kristaps Porzingis (23 points), Clint Capela (19), Bam Adebayo (25) and Wendell Carter Jr. (19). All of them were able to attack the lack of depth up front for GSW. Over his last 2 games, Ayton has failed to go over the points prop line of 17.5 seen for tonight’s game, but I think he bounces back and takes advantage. He’s playing for a big contract this summer, I think his motor will continue to run at a high level. I’ve placed a bet on Deandre Ayton over 17.5 points +100.
Pick: Deandre Ayton over 17.5 points +100 half unit bet
Corey Kispert
The Washington Wizards roster has been decimated by injuries and major mid-season turnover. They’ve failed to compete at a high level and frankly don’t have the pieces to do so. Corey Kispert, their first-round draft pick selected 15th overall last season, has benefited from the chaos in Washington. He’s shooting 40%+ from three since the All-Star break and has really come on lately. Newly acquired Kristaps Porzingis has looked healthy and has fully integrated into the offence, putting together some great performances for the Wizards. His increased paint presence has opened things up for the Wizards shooters. Corey Kispert, KCP and Deni Avdija have benefited tremendously from being able to play with a big that’s commanded extra defensive attention from opposing offenses. Over his last 15 games, Kispert has gone over his points prop total of 1.5 a total of 10 times, averaging close to 2.5 made per contest. The Orlando Magic perimeter defense only features one above-average defender, Chuma Okeke. With Wendell Carter Jr. out for the Magic, throwing bodies at Porzingis will be imperative for the Magic. Kispert should continue to benefit. I’ve placed a bet on Corey Kispert over 1.5 threes made.
Pick: Corey Kispert over 1.5 threes made -105 half unit bet
Fred VanVleet
Fred VanVleet is having the best season of his NBA career. His shooting ability, defense and quality decision making earned him his first trip to the all-star game. Over the last few weeks, he’s been bothered by knee pain that’s caused him to miss a few games. Statistically, he hasn’t had the same signature performances that we’re accustomed to witnessing from FVV (over his last 4 games). In two of these games, he only managed to attempt 13 shots total. I think tonight’s Raptors game vs the Minnesota Timberwolves presents an opportunity for him bounce back, however. The Twolves have not played effective perimeter defense in the month of March. Their roster does not possess a truly efficient perimeter defender either. One key indicator is that FVV isn’t listed on tonight’s injury report in any form, not even probable. Neither the Raptors + Timberwolves postseason seeding is solidified as of today. I’m projecting a return to form for FVV tonight in what is sure to be a fast-paced game. Over his last 50 games, VanVleet has gone over tonight's point prop total of 18.5 an impressive 33 times (66%). Fred VanVleet over 18.5 points is the pick here. I’ll be in attendance for this game, I hope to see some fireworks!
Pick: Fred VanVleet over 18.5 points -110 half unit bet
More selections
Thursday’s Frenzy Bets Newsletter will return with extensive betting coverage and analysis. I’m headed to the Raptors/Twolves game after an appointment today, I need the entertainment. Today’s newsletter is free for everyone who selected the free tier. Consider upgrading to “paid” for my upcoming Soccer + MLB betting reports! Here is a list of the rest of my NBA picks + props for tonight. Best of luck everyone!
Picks
D’Angelo Russell over 15.5 points -115 half unit bet
D’Angelo Russell over 2.5 threes -105 .25 unit bet
Jalen Green under 20.5 points -105 half unit bet
Franz Wagner over 14.5 points -110 .25 unit bet
Devin Vassell over 13.5 points +100 .25 unit bet
Gary Trent Jr. over 2.5 threes +150 .2 unit bet
Karl-Anthony Towns over 1.5 threes -110 .25 unit bet
Note
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