NBA Picks + Props for Sunday 3/27/22
NBA Picks + Props for Sunday 3/27/22
There's still meaningful basketball to be played
Welcome to Frenzy Bets! This is the debut of my daily sports betting newsletter. Subscribers will receive picks, research + analysis for NBA, NCAAB, NFL, NCAAF, MLB + Soccer betting markets. Wednesday is when I publish free articles for those who selected that tier. I appreciate your interest, this is the beginning of a new journey for me. You can always view more of my work on Twitter. It’s not necessary, but I recommend downloading the Substack IOS app. Let’s proceed!
Joel Embiid
Simply put, Joel Embiid is an absolute tank. During his MVP-worthy campaign this season, he’s attempting free throws at a historic rate during the modern era. His on-court presence alone slows the game down tremendously and generates many more possessions per game for the 76ers compared to the minutes he’s off the floor. He's battling on three fronts towards the end of the regular season. The MVP race, the scoring title race (which may end up being the closest of all time, see above) and an internal battle within the 76ers organization revolving around whether or not Embiid should be rested for the playoffs (effectively paving the way for Jokic to win the award again). The 76ers visit the league-leading Phoenix Suns today. I think Joel Embiid is more than ready for the moment.
Embiid has gone under his points prop total in each of his last 3 games for the Sixers. The lines were set at 31.5 in each contest. In 9 career games, he’s averaged 31 ppg on 53.4% FG and nearly 20 shots per game. In his last 4 meetings vs the Suns, he’s scored 34+ points in each game. This season, the Suns’ only basketball-related deficiency has been their propensity for allowing opposing bigs to get to the free throw line at a rapid rate. Joel Embiid is the perfect candidate to attack this weakness. Deandre Ayton is having his best season as a pro, but he’s also a bit undersized here. Over his last 50 games, embiid has gone over today’s line of 30.5 points 30 times (60%). If Head Coach Doc Rivers has plans to rest Embiid/Harden on the horizon, this will be one of Embiid’s last opportunities to create separation between Jokic and himself amongst MVP voters. I think it will be close, but I’ve bet Joel Embiid over 30.5 points -110.
Pick: Joel Embiid over 30.5 points half unit bet
Patrick Beverley
Patrick Beverley is a basketball menace. He is miniature in size, but psychologically daunting. He genuinely gets under the skin of many of his opponents. However, this isn’t why the Minnesota Timberwolves brought him into their organization before this season. Besides being an NBA veteran (something that was sorely missing in Minnesota), The T-Wolves needed a secondary ball-handler who could alleviate some of the defensive pressure that usually swarms teammate D’Angelo Russell. Because he also usually keeps his turnovers to a minimum ( something that has extended his career), Beverley has fit that description and has had a positive impact on the Timberwolves this season.
Beverley is an extremely high energy player on the road. In his last 15 away games, he’s gone over today’s assist prop total of 3.5 11 times. He recorded 6+ assists in 10 of those games as well. The Boston Celtics (the Timberwolves opponent this evening) lead the league in most defensive metrics, including defending the very pick and roll sets deployed by the T-Wolves combo of Russell + Towns. I believe the Celtics defensive approach towards Russell/Towns will generate extra creation opportunities for Minnesota’s role players. Coming off of two straight assist prop unders, today’s line of 3.5 presents value. There is a wide discrepancy between his on court performance and what the odds imply for this matchup today. I have bet Patrick Beverley over 3.5 assists -115.
Pick: Patrick Beverley over 3.5 assists -115 half unit bet
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
KCP has been a forgotten talent in Washington this season. The veteran has been on a tear from beyond the arch for the Wizards since the all-star break, shooting 45%+. The Wizards as a whole have been terrible, victims of circumstance and severe mid-season roster turnover. Bradley Beal was also shut down over a month and a half ago. This has led to the basketball public at large to largely ignore the few bright spots on this roster. With Kyle Kuzma ( who has is also having a career season) OUT over the last few games, more of the offensive onus has fallen on Caldwell-Pope and new teammate Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis is coming off a 30 point performance and will be the focal point for the Warriors defensive scheming in today’s matchup. This should create added space for the rest of the Wizards shooters. KCP’s three point prop has been set at 2.5 at odds as high as +140 in some places. I’ve placed a small bet on the over.
Pick: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over 2.5 threes made +135 .25 units
Marcus Smart
Marcus Smart has been the heart and soul of the Boston Celtics this season. Much of what he brings to the table can’t be quantified by numbers. Hethrivese at home and has increased his distribution abilities as the Celtics de facto point guard this season. I’m projecting Marcus smart to have a meaningful impact vs the Minnesota Timberwolves today. Al Horford is out, being replaced by Grant Williams in the starting lineup. Williams helps to further space the floor, meaning Boston’s team as a whole may benefit from three if they continue their recent run of form. The odds aren’t the most enticing at -135, but I’ve placed a bet on Marcus Smart over 1.5 threes -135.
Picks: Marcus Smart over 1.5 threes made -135 .25 units
Player to watch: Jonathan Kuminga
Props for Jonathan Kuminga haven’t been listed for today’s Warriors vs Wizards game, which is unfortunate because I’ve projected him to have a meaningful impact. The Wizards primary paint defender is Kristaps Porzingis, who is having on a great run of recent form offensively. However, Kuminga’s ability to stretch the floor and use his athleticism to his advantage will likely leave Porzingis flat-footed in 1-on-1 encounters. Kuminga’s lines are generally set too low, in my opinion. I would bet his points total over up to 13.5, if offered by game time. This potential bet is contingent on Kuminga starting vs the Wizards.
Thanks for reading!
Tomorrow’s betting report will be more extensive. Thanks for reading the Frenzy Sports Newsletter. You can view more of my work on Twitter and Youtube, where I share sports betting research + content daily. Leave a comment below, I’d love to hear your feedback! More picks across sports on the way. Take care!