NBA Picks: Celtics vs Warriors Game 5 NBA Finals
NBA Picks: Celtics vs Warriors Game 5 NBA Finals
Pivotal game in the Bay
This series has lived up to the hype so far, but I have a feeling the best is yet to come. Yes, Steph Curry took game 4 with his legendary scoring performance, but the Warriors’ defense also deserves a lot of credit for a variety of reasons. It seems both the Celtics and Warriors have been favourites + underdogs to win this series (futures price) three times each. I’ve had a great ride betting the Celtics with good timing, that changed in game 4 when I won a live bet on Golden State ML +130 midway through the 3rd quarter. The Celtics weren’t able to attack the paint as effectively as Game 3.
By now, everyone knows that the Celtics perform better both on the road and in high-pressure situations, during these playoffs. They haven’t lost back-to-back games. This trend has been good to us. The oddsmakers definitely know this as well, as they seem hesitant to over-adjust Celtics lines even after huge swings in momentum. In game 4, Jayson Tatum did not have a good game. He was even worse in 4th quarter. He shot 1-5 in the 4th and had 6 of the Celtics’ 19 turnovers, which led to 19 points for the Warriors. The Celtics are 13-2 in the postseason when their opponents score 18 points or less off their turnovers, and 1-6 when the other team scores 19 or more. They reverted to an inefficient brand of iso-heavy basketball and it cost them offensively. If Steph Curry is going off for 43 points, in a relatively close game, then your offense can’t sputter in the 4th quarter like it did in game 4. Fortunately for us, this team has displayed a near-instant ability to correct their mistakes after losses.
We are witnessing basketball greatness in Steph Curry’s 2022 NBA Finals performance, I respect what he’s doing to silence his critics. I also give credit to the Warriors defense for slowing Tatum down when they needed to. With that said, we have seen the Celtics win 2 games in this series while Curry explodes offensively. I believe Boston has reached a point where they have no choice but to double Curry. They have defended his teammates well, but it’s come at a severe cost. I’m predicting that the Celtics offense will perform much better in game 5, they will win the points in the paint scoring differential and get to the free throw line often. Jayson Tatum will be more creative offensively, his routine of forcing his way to the rim at all costs became predictable to the Warriors. I will continue betting Boston after a loss during the postseason until this unique trend ends. I hope this makes sense, best of luck and enjoy game 5! Thanks for reading Frenzy Bets, the sports predictions newsletter.
Picks: Boston Celtics +4 1 unit bet
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