NBA + MLB Picks for Saturday 5/21/22

Let's win

Welcome to my Frenzy Bets Newsletter! It’s @Myguyknowsaguy and I’m happy to return with more sports betting picks and projections for Saturday. Today’s main newsletter is free for everyone. I usually write my reports for a single sport, but I kept it concise since the overall sporting landscape is stacked today. If you’re interested in effective betting analysis and picks delivered to your e-mail inbox every day, consider becoming a premium newsletter member. Or, join my private Telegram group for these picks plus all of my live bets (In-Play) across sports. All Telegram members receive the premium version of this newsletter for free. Let’s attack.

ESPN Stats & Info @ESPNStatsInfo

In the regular season, the Heat led the NBA in 3-point field goal percentage, while the Celtics led the league in defending the 3-point shot. This is the 7th time the top team in 3-point offense will face the top team in 3-point defense. Defense has won 4 of the last 6 series.

Celtics + Heat Total

The NBA playoffs are all about adjustments. In my opinion, the two most important factors that determine success are health and the coaching staff’s ability to adapt as the series progresses. Advanced statistics are always useful, but you must watch and study the games. To put it simply, the Miami Heat must adjust their perimeter defensive strategy in Game 3 and they have both the personnel and coaching staff to do it. Head Coach Erik Spoelstra must devise a game plan to run the Celtics off of the three-point line. They got absolutely torched in Game 2, as I predicted. Many assumed the return of Al Horford and Marcus Smart would bolster Boston’s defense before Game 2. They were right, but they had an even bigger effect on their offense, which exploded. The Boston Celtics lead the league in most important defensive metrics since January 1st. Those metrics improve dramatically at home. I think one of two things will happen tonight in Game 3. Either the Heat will match the Celtics’ defensive intensity, keeping the game close. Or, The Celtics defense will continue to shine at home, dominating the Heat, but needing far fewer points to do so. Both ideas support betting the under. Let’s bet.

Picks: Heat + Celtics under 207.5 (Game 3) half unit bet

MLB Picks

Chicago Cubs ML -140 half unit (Listed pitchers must start) - I’m backing (Cubs Pitcher) Justin Steele, who recorded 10 K’s vs the Diamondbacks on May 15th. This line is a bit off to me and I’m not worried about yesterday’s explosive scoring between these two teams. The outward wind was a major factor on Friday, 3 of those Arizona home runs wouldn’t have travelled as far today, as the wind is now blowing inwards. Steele is getting stronger as the season progresses.

Ballpark Pal @BallparkPal

Wrigley Field (5/20) @ #Cubs Wind: 22 mph ⬆, Impact: Extreme Temp: 77° (+6° vs park avg) HRs: +13%, XBH: +4%, Runs: +7.1% #ARIvsCHC | #CHCvsARI

Tampa Bay Rays ML -137 half unit (Listed pitchers must start) - Backing Jeffrey Springs, who’s been very impressive in short stints. I’m expecting the Orioles bats to regress today.

Tom Brew @tombrewsports

Another nice outing for Jeffrey Springs @JSprings19 today for the Tampa Bay #Rays. He goes 4 2/3 scoreless innings in the 3-0 win over the Blue Jays. Here's my Sports Illustrated game story. @MLB #MLB @si_mlb

si.comRays Snap Pair of Hitless Streaks to Knock Off Blue Jays 3-0 in Series FinaleWander Franco and Ji-Man Choi both broke out of long hitless streaks in the same inning, getting sixth-inning singles to help the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Toronto Blue Jays 3-0 on Sunday. Jeffrey Springs pitched 4 2/3 scoreless innings and the Rays’ bullpen dominated once again to help win the series…

The Following picks are .25 units each:

Seattle Mariners ML +140

Philadelphia Phillies ML -120

Los Angeles Angels ML -135

Houston Astros team total over 4.5 -110

Miami Marlins +1.5 -135

Best of luck

Enjoy your Saturday! I spend quite a bit of time creating projections, but it’s also a long weekend up here in Canada. Try watching more of the games you bet (if time permits) to pick up on some of the in-game dynamics that aren’t reflected by statistics. Over time, your betting intuition will become stronger. I will publish another soccer picks + NBA props newsletter for premium subscribers today. I’ll also post some of them on Twitter. Consider subscribing and also download the substack app for IOS (whether you’re free tier or paid), for easier reading. This isn’t necessary, you can simply read my newsletter via e-mail. Take care readers!